Sunday, January 01, 2006

IT Recession -- 2007

The next IT recession is scheduled to begin in 2007. Over the following three years the job market for IT specialists will shrink by 40 percent.

Forrester Research and the Information Technology Association of America (ITAA) announced its inaugural US Tech Sector Index in December. The new quarterly benchmark is based on 11 measures of IT demand, supply, and the strength of US-based IT providers. Findings reveal both moderate increases and declines in various indicators over the coming year. A mild downturn is expected in 2007 followed by the next wave of tech innovation and heavy IT investment starting in 2008.

According to separate research conducted by Gartner, Inc., the job market for IT specialists will shrink 40 percent by 2010.

This does not mean the demand for tech skills will decline. It simply means the nature of tech work will change. IT "versatilists" will emerge replacing IT "specialists." An IT "versatilist" will be charged with fueling business value and will gain experience through multidisciplinary assignments.

"Today's IT specialists must focus on a rapid and intentional expansion from technical specialization to business competence in order to position themselves as tomorrow's business contributors," according to a Gartner representative.

This shift in work competencies is just one of six trends presented as part of a Gartner Special Report entitled "
Gartner's Top Predictions for 2006 and Beyond."

According to Gartner the IT profession will split into four domains of expertise over the remainder of this decade:

For a complete description of these four areas of practice access a recent Gartner press release.

Web developers should set specific goals in the first half of 2006 to improve in the following three areas:

The downturn is a year away. Plan now for next year's recession and position yourself for the opportunities that await beyond.

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